* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 67 68 67 69 68 74 82 81 83 82 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 67 68 67 69 68 74 82 81 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 68 67 64 62 61 63 67 72 61 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 20 15 13 11 6 10 2 3 2 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 1 4 4 1 7 0 6 1 0 3 7 SHEAR DIR 264 250 247 251 252 231 238 238 250 298 261 271 301 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 152 148 146 143 145 148 152 156 161 162 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 154 149 145 140 135 136 139 143 146 151 150 149 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 56 57 57 58 60 67 73 74 76 74 78 79 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 23 23 23 25 23 27 30 28 31 34 850 MB ENV VOR 48 60 58 65 78 97 112 111 113 109 121 137 140 200 MB DIV 95 91 67 64 78 79 114 92 129 122 139 69 126 700-850 TADV 17 12 9 2 8 7 8 8 10 7 11 21 18 LAND (KM) 352 296 231 212 158 174 256 372 256 107 100 -22 146 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.8 14.0 14.7 15.8 17.2 18.7 20.4 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 67.1 68.3 69.4 70.4 71.4 72.6 73.5 74.4 75.0 75.4 75.6 75.7 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 8 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 74 85 102 74 47 36 37 46 62 70 84 86 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. 4. 7. 4. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 3. 9. 17. 16. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.2 67.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.44 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 76.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.49 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.20 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.81 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.50 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.51 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 285.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 31.3% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 21.2% Logistic: 2.7% 14.7% 7.5% 1.8% 0.0% 1.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% Consensus: 5.9% 15.7% 7.9% 0.6% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 3( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 66 67 68 67 69 68 74 82 81 65 66 18HR AGO 65 64 64 65 66 65 67 66 72 80 79 63 64 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 63 62 64 63 69 77 76 60 61 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 55 57 56 62 70 69 53 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT