* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 26 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 26 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 38 44 46 49 52 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 270 270 272 277 277 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 133 133 133 134 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 42 44 46 46 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 11 14 3 2 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 1 -6 -12 -8 -10 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 7 5 6 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1599 1528 1458 1377 1296 1138 953 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.0 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.9 140.5 141.1 141.8 142.6 144.1 145.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 1 6 1 3 8 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -4. -6. -14. -24. -35. -46. -54. -59. -59. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -16. -25. -36. -46. -54. -60. -64. -65. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.9 139.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 266.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.80 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 62.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##