* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 70 71 72 72 70 71 79 84 83 79 85 V (KT) LAND 65 67 70 71 72 72 70 71 79 84 83 72 77 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 68 67 65 65 67 72 78 82 75 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 14 10 12 14 10 6 1 4 9 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 5 7 3 0 1 2 0 0 1 5 8 SHEAR DIR 253 254 253 252 232 241 228 257 358 288 261 275 285 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 148 146 144 143 145 149 154 159 161 159 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 151 144 140 137 135 137 141 146 148 150 148 154 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -50.9 -51.4 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 8 9 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 59 58 61 63 66 72 75 76 76 78 80 76 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 23 23 24 24 25 30 33 32 31 37 850 MB ENV VOR 57 57 67 75 88 99 114 107 127 111 130 127 165 200 MB DIV 107 68 48 54 74 72 79 109 150 130 74 75 123 700-850 TADV 10 4 4 6 5 6 5 6 2 8 11 16 16 LAND (KM) 309 226 193 156 146 178 290 344 192 81 55 53 301 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.6 14.0 15.0 16.5 18.0 19.3 21.3 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 68.1 69.3 70.4 71.1 71.9 72.9 73.9 74.6 75.0 75.2 75.2 75.2 75.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 7 6 5 6 7 8 7 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 82 103 68 50 40 34 38 50 65 77 81 82 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. 0. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 7. 10. 9. 7. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 6. 14. 19. 18. 14. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.2 68.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.55 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 68.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.85 4.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.46 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.47 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 240.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 5.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 20.5% 38.0% 26.5% 20.4% 16.3% 19.8% 20.4% Logistic: 16.2% 27.4% 16.7% 12.0% 0.0% 5.1% 2.2% Bayesian: 5.3% 12.7% 4.2% 1.8% 1.1% 2.6% 1.7% Consensus: 14.0% 26.0% 15.8% 11.4% 5.8% 9.2% 8.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 4( 10) 4( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 7( 11) 8( 18) 21( 35) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 70 71 72 72 70 71 79 84 83 72 77 18HR AGO 65 64 67 68 69 69 67 68 76 81 80 69 74 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 63 63 61 62 70 75 74 63 68 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 56 54 55 63 68 67 56 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT