* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 89 90 88 85 80 75 78 82 82 82 79 80 V (KT) LAND 85 89 90 88 85 80 75 78 82 82 61 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 85 90 91 88 84 77 74 75 81 86 67 78 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 15 15 18 11 9 6 4 5 11 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 3 0 4 0 0 -3 -2 0 5 9 SHEAR DIR 252 251 246 232 235 240 250 266 220 236 241 261 278 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 146 144 143 145 147 151 156 161 160 162 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 145 140 136 135 136 139 143 147 151 148 148 152 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -51.5 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.2 -50.6 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 59 61 63 65 68 74 77 77 75 77 77 77 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 23 21 21 22 20 24 29 30 32 32 35 850 MB ENV VOR 54 67 77 88 95 105 112 107 113 121 132 135 154 200 MB DIV 67 46 55 55 64 105 81 115 114 143 107 111 86 700-850 TADV 3 5 7 5 6 6 7 5 4 10 14 14 18 LAND (KM) 234 219 172 162 178 249 368 261 107 100 -2 162 367 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 14.5 15.7 17.2 18.9 20.6 22.5 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 69.3 70.3 71.3 71.9 72.5 73.5 74.5 75.1 75.4 75.6 75.6 75.6 75.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 6 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 103 78 51 42 37 37 44 61 70 84 85 75 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 23.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -8. -4. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. 0. 5. 7. 8. 8. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 3. 0. -5. -10. -7. -3. -3. -3. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.1 69.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 12.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.45 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 62.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.95 6.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.58 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.57 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.39 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.25 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 290.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 6.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 35.2% 38.5% 32.3% 19.4% 16.8% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 24.1% 24.2% 15.9% 12.1% 0.0% 3.5% 1.1% Bayesian: 29.2% 9.3% 5.8% 3.6% 4.4% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 29.5% 24.0% 18.0% 11.7% 7.1% 6.2% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 12( 21) 10( 29) 7( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 6( 14) 3( 17) 9( 24) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 89 90 88 85 80 75 78 82 82 61 66 67 18HR AGO 85 84 85 83 80 75 70 73 77 77 56 61 62 12HR AGO 85 82 81 79 76 71 66 69 73 73 52 57 58 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 72 67 62 65 69 69 48 53 54 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 61 56 59 63 63 42 47 48 IN 6HR 85 89 80 74 71 68 63 66 70 70 49 54 55 IN 12HR 85 89 90 81 75 71 66 69 73 73 52 57 58