* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 49 53 56 59 64 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -5 -6 -8 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 278 282 285 288 287 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 134 135 135 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 45 45 46 44 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 3 7 10 14 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -15 -13 -12 -28 -8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 7 8 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1432 1327 1223 1119 1014 774 483 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.3 142.3 143.2 144.2 145.2 147.5 150.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 9 10 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 2 5 10 12 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -6. -16. -29. -45. -61. -72. -80. -80. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -20. -33. -47. -60. -69. -77. -79. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.9 141.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 52.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 219.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.63 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 67.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/30/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##