* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 91 89 86 79 80 81 85 87 82 83 81 V (KT) LAND 90 93 91 89 86 79 80 81 85 87 66 67 65 V (KT) LGEM 90 94 93 90 86 79 78 81 89 97 76 84 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 15 16 17 11 7 1 3 1 5 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 5 1 4 4 0 1 0 1 11 13 12 SHEAR DIR 257 250 235 236 239 242 251 160 219 278 271 311 292 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 144 144 144 145 149 152 159 164 160 166 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 138 138 136 136 138 141 144 150 154 148 152 153 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 -51.3 -50.3 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 9 9 9 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 61 63 64 67 71 74 76 76 76 77 75 76 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 20 21 21 20 24 25 30 32 31 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR 70 75 90 94 104 117 110 119 109 130 132 161 156 200 MB DIV 44 51 57 73 92 93 121 130 139 145 93 99 79 700-850 TADV 3 8 7 7 8 8 7 5 9 8 17 16 23 LAND (KM) 193 146 124 149 194 311 346 191 24 55 25 231 410 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.6 14.0 14.8 16.1 17.6 19.4 21.3 23.3 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 70.4 71.1 71.9 72.5 73.1 74.3 75.3 75.9 76.1 76.1 75.9 75.9 76.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 71 51 39 34 32 36 50 71 80 90 96 63 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 20.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -7. -1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -2. -4. -2. -1. 4. 7. 4. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 1. -1. -4. -10. -10. -9. -5. -3. -8. -7. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 13.8 70.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 10.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.49 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.90 4.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.56 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.42 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.18 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 280.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 28.0% 32.1% 25.9% 14.2% 11.8% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 21.6% 23.2% 15.1% 10.7% 0.0% 4.2% 1.1% Bayesian: 32.7% 12.8% 5.4% 2.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 27.5% 22.7% 15.5% 9.0% 4.6% 5.5% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 10( 30) 7( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 13 15( 26) 12( 35) 34( 57) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 93 91 89 86 79 80 81 85 87 66 67 65 18HR AGO 90 89 87 85 82 75 76 77 81 83 62 63 61 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 81 74 75 76 80 82 61 62 60 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 77 70 71 72 76 78 57 58 56 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 64 65 66 70 72 51 52 50 IN 6HR 90 93 84 78 75 70 71 72 76 78 57 58 56 IN 12HR 90 93 91 82 76 72 73 74 78 80 59 60 58