* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP182016 09/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 16 18 20 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 15 16 18 20 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 36 37 39 42 50 57 65 80 55 38 62 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 -1 -5 -7 -10 -24 -8 3 -11 4 SHEAR DIR 241 237 235 236 235 238 247 253 252 250 219 217 212 SST (C) 23.2 22.9 22.5 22.1 21.5 20.1 28.7 23.0 20.3 18.3 15.4 12.9 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 92 89 85 82 76 63 154 96 70 67 65 63 61 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -55.5 -57.9 -59.4 -57.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 3 1 3 1 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 28 29 29 31 33 35 35 36 40 52 65 66 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 14 6 3 1 -9 12 49 41 71 13 29 57 200 MB DIV 8 10 6 13 16 10 29 19 48 75 80 71 81 700-850 TADV 9 9 6 8 0 -3 -7 -3 41 122 -19 91 15 LAND (KM) 414 416 389 340 277 126 62 -352 -890 -999 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.6 25.1 25.7 26.5 28.4 30.5 33.1 36.7 41.6 46.6 50.5 52.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.3 117.5 117.5 117.4 116.1 113.6 110.1 106.1 102.4 101.0 102.1 105.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 9 13 17 22 27 28 23 16 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 7. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. -4. -25. -57. -84. -99.-108.-116. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. -2. -15. -40. -58. -68. -74. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 24.3 116.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182016 ROSLYN 09/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 38.9 to 2.1 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 15.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 147.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.46 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182016 ROSLYN 09/30/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##