* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 111 107 101 97 91 91 93 96 91 85 85 86 V (KT) LAND 110 111 107 101 97 91 91 93 96 74 69 68 69 V (KT) LGEM 110 112 108 102 96 90 89 95 101 86 83 89 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 14 12 8 3 2 2 5 4 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 6 4 1 2 2 3 3 9 8 4 SHEAR DIR 255 239 233 248 252 259 311 256 16 228 250 269 284 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 144 143 147 150 154 162 164 162 167 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 136 136 135 138 142 146 153 155 150 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 -51.0 -50.5 -50.0 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 61 64 66 70 72 76 78 77 77 75 75 76 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 22 21 22 22 26 28 32 32 32 35 38 850 MB ENV VOR 76 89 91 108 107 110 109 111 117 137 142 159 170 200 MB DIV 41 45 67 84 102 108 126 121 158 85 100 74 65 700-850 TADV 8 12 10 9 6 6 5 9 10 11 15 17 14 LAND (KM) 119 112 155 211 256 328 298 135 23 -44 159 346 433 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.5 13.5 14.1 15.2 16.6 18.3 20.3 22.6 24.5 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.3 72.0 72.8 73.4 74.0 74.8 75.5 76.0 76.2 76.3 76.0 75.9 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 35 30 31 32 38 58 74 77 93 84 62 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -20. -26. -30. -35. -37. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -11. -13. -12. -8. -1. 4. 9. 12. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 3. 7. 7. 6. 9. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -3. -9. -13. -19. -19. -17. -14. -19. -25. -25. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.5 71.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 239.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 26.1% 25.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.0% 16.4% 10.5% 5.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.9% Bayesian: 20.7% 3.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.9% 15.1% 4.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 20( 59) 12( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 18 9( 25) 29( 47) 80( 89) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 111 107 101 97 91 91 93 96 74 69 68 69 18HR AGO 110 109 105 99 95 89 89 91 94 72 67 66 67 12HR AGO 110 107 106 100 96 90 90 92 95 73 68 67 68 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 96 90 90 92 95 73 68 67 68 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 85 85 87 90 68 63 62 63 IN 6HR 110 111 102 96 93 90 90 92 95 73 68 67 68 IN 12HR 110 111 107 98 92 88 88 90 93 71 66 65 66