* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 54 57 61 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -8 -8 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 282 286 289 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 134 135 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 42 42 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 9 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -2 -27 -28 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1286 1170 1053 922 791 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.6 143.7 144.8 146.1 147.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 7 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -4. -7. -17. -30. -46. -63. -75. -83. -83. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -28. -42. -56. -66. -74. -77. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.5 142.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 60.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 234.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.57 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 75.7 81.4 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/30/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##