* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 136 128 117 108 101 102 107 104 90 86 85 88 V (KT) LAND 135 136 128 117 108 101 102 107 104 67 71 69 72 V (KT) LGEM 135 137 130 119 111 102 103 109 111 75 86 93 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 12 10 8 3 3 3 7 6 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 7 5 5 2 2 0 0 6 3 3 4 SHEAR DIR 249 247 250 247 254 262 340 245 302 270 285 306 298 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 144 143 145 149 152 158 164 160 163 166 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 137 135 137 141 143 149 154 149 148 145 144 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.3 -50.0 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 64 66 71 73 75 77 76 74 75 75 77 76 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 24 24 23 27 29 34 35 32 35 37 41 850 MB ENV VOR 86 91 105 112 119 109 114 107 125 133 161 153 166 200 MB DIV 52 74 86 97 99 118 128 126 93 83 90 83 90 700-850 TADV 11 9 8 6 8 7 5 7 9 19 11 16 12 LAND (KM) 105 143 199 256 289 363 204 45 86 -7 212 346 432 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.7 16.0 17.4 19.1 21.0 23.1 24.5 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.6 73.3 73.8 74.3 75.1 75.8 76.1 76.0 75.9 75.9 75.9 75.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 30 30 32 35 48 70 78 92 48 79 62 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -7. -10. -18. -27. -38. -47. -54. -60. -64. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -13. -15. -14. -8. -1. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 7. 5. 0. -3. -6. -5. -1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 5. 10. 12. 8. 10. 13. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -7. -18. -27. -34. -33. -28. -31. -45. -49. -50. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 13.4 72.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 45.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 135.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 1.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 273.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 29.3% 24.0% 15.1% 7.2% 0.0% 2.5% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.8% 8.0% 5.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 43( 70) 28( 79) 23( 84) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 47 51( 74) 92( 98) 97(100) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 136 128 117 108 101 102 107 104 67 71 69 72 18HR AGO 135 134 126 115 106 99 100 105 102 65 69 67 70 12HR AGO 135 132 131 120 111 104 105 110 107 70 74 72 75 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 116 109 110 115 112 75 79 77 80 NOW 135 126 120 117 116 109 110 115 112 75 79 77 80 IN 6HR 135 136 127 121 118 115 116 121 118 81 85 83 86 IN 12HR 135 136 128 119 113 109 110 115 112 75 79 77 80