* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 10/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 58 61 65 69 72 80 74 68 67 61 58 63 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -8 -10 -14 -17 -13 -9 -4 0 0 -9 -1 SHEAR DIR 285 286 288 285 281 277 267 272 266 253 248 249 262 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 129 128 126 124 122 121 120 122 121 118 114 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 41 40 39 38 38 40 43 42 39 40 37 36 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 11 7 0 -1 -8 -15 -22 -26 -22 -34 -28 -18 200 MB DIV -3 -24 -23 -16 -2 -31 -4 13 9 8 13 -7 -12 700-850 TADV 6 4 3 2 -2 -2 -5 2 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1138 1041 976 943 921 900 901 882 894 945 1020 1101 1196 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.4 20.7 21.3 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 144.0 144.9 145.5 145.8 146.0 146.2 146.2 146.4 146.3 145.8 145.1 144.4 143.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 5 3 2 1 1 2 1 3 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -4. -8. -19. -35. -55. -76. -90. -98. -99. -95. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -15. -31. -50. -70. -84. -95. -98. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.6 144.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 10/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 65.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 243.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.57 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 86.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 10/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##