* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/01/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 137 127 116 107 100 95 102 97 86 82 82 85 V (KT) LAND 140 137 127 116 107 100 95 101 96 69 66 65 68 V (KT) LGEM 140 137 128 117 110 102 103 106 107 82 85 90 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 16 13 14 13 7 6 3 5 7 8 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 6 2 0 4 0 1 2 9 6 1 1 SHEAR DIR 251 260 262 253 254 277 220 223 227 308 262 285 298 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.5 30.0 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 143 144 145 151 156 161 164 161 170 167 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 135 136 138 144 147 150 152 149 153 144 140 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.0 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 66 72 72 75 76 74 74 72 73 76 78 79 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 24 23 23 26 26 34 33 31 33 34 39 850 MB ENV VOR 88 99 103 106 100 102 100 111 118 128 144 153 131 200 MB DIV 60 75 77 91 98 117 116 140 86 96 53 121 55 700-850 TADV 11 9 7 4 7 11 9 9 9 20 15 9 9 LAND (KM) 124 181 241 289 322 290 111 15 0 90 300 380 384 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.1 15.3 16.8 18.3 19.9 21.9 24.3 25.7 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 72.5 73.1 73.7 74.0 74.4 75.4 76.2 76.3 76.0 75.9 76.4 76.4 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 8 8 8 9 11 10 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 31 34 37 58 75 71 22 94 69 67 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -20. -29. -41. -50. -59. -64. -68. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -16. -18. -18. -12. -4. 2. 8. 12. 16. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 4. 3. -1. -3. -5. -5. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. 1. 0. 9. 8. 5. 6. 8. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -13. -24. -33. -40. -45. -38. -43. -54. -58. -58. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 13.3 72.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 140.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -4.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 255.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.8% 10.6% 6.5% 2.5% 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 3.6% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 41( 73) 27( 80) 22( 85) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 15 48( 56) 91( 96) 76( 99) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 137 127 116 107 100 95 101 96 69 66 65 68 18HR AGO 140 139 129 118 109 102 97 103 98 71 68 67 70 12HR AGO 140 137 136 125 116 109 104 110 105 78 75 74 77 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 121 114 109 115 110 83 80 79 82 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 114 109 115 110 83 80 79 82 IN 6HR 140 137 128 122 119 116 111 117 112 85 82 81 84 IN 12HR 140 137 127 118 112 108 103 109 104 77 74 73 76