* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/01/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 122 116 110 111 108 108 106 99 94 94 97 96 V (KT) LAND 130 122 116 110 111 108 108 106 78 74 74 77 77 V (KT) LGEM 130 120 112 105 100 97 101 105 83 85 93 99 101 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 14 14 9 2 0 2 5 9 10 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 2 2 4 6 6 3 8 4 4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 265 285 262 257 278 190 326 112 346 349 307 281 274 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 145 147 150 156 163 162 161 167 168 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 135 137 139 142 147 153 150 147 150 148 143 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.1 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 70 73 75 74 74 73 70 71 71 75 76 76 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 24 21 27 27 30 32 29 28 30 34 38 850 MB ENV VOR 99 103 106 99 97 107 97 115 112 131 123 138 102 200 MB DIV 78 85 86 76 116 103 100 118 89 62 83 105 63 700-850 TADV 8 9 5 8 8 5 8 8 13 7 10 3 6 LAND (KM) 181 233 255 307 363 255 91 59 -33 133 273 373 348 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.5 14.0 14.4 15.6 17.0 18.7 20.5 22.3 23.9 25.4 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 73.6 74.2 74.5 74.9 75.5 76.0 76.2 76.0 75.9 76.2 76.5 76.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 31 37 46 66 74 92 89 88 60 66 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -15. -23. -33. -41. -49. -54. -58. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -10. -14. -16. -12. -6. 2. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. 2. 2. 5. 8. 4. 2. 4. 8. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -20. -19. -22. -22. -24. -31. -36. -36. -33. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 13.4 73.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.94 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 130.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 204.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 4.3% 2.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 31( 61) 29( 72) 28( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 15 82( 85) 87( 98) 91(100) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 122 116 110 111 108 108 106 78 74 74 77 77 18HR AGO 130 129 123 117 118 115 115 113 85 81 81 84 84 12HR AGO 130 127 126 120 121 118 118 116 88 84 84 87 87 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 121 118 118 116 88 84 84 87 87 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 108 108 106 78 74 74 77 77 IN 6HR 130 122 113 107 104 104 104 102 74 70 70 73 73 IN 12HR 130 122 116 107 101 97 97 95 67 63 63 66 66