* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/01/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 117 112 111 111 111 110 106 100 101 96 101 98 V (KT) LAND 125 117 112 111 111 111 110 106 88 89 84 89 86 V (KT) LGEM 125 116 109 104 101 100 104 109 96 102 104 103 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 10 5 1 2 3 10 9 7 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 2 3 5 3 6 8 9 6 3 0 SHEAR DIR 281 273 267 281 307 229 341 324 350 312 309 284 287 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 147 149 152 158 162 158 163 168 168 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 135 137 138 141 143 148 151 145 147 149 146 141 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 -51.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.1 -49.9 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 8 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 74 75 74 75 74 72 71 70 72 74 74 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 21 24 25 27 29 30 28 31 31 37 40 850 MB ENV VOR 100 102 96 93 100 102 104 116 111 119 117 111 98 200 MB DIV 90 82 83 112 114 88 123 102 105 63 81 74 64 700-850 TADV 6 6 9 5 8 8 7 10 13 13 14 12 16 LAND (KM) 186 244 300 356 357 207 95 44 45 216 350 389 376 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.9 16.2 17.7 19.4 21.3 23.0 24.6 25.8 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 73.3 73.7 74.1 74.4 74.7 75.2 75.3 75.3 75.3 75.6 76.0 76.3 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 34 43 54 71 84 97 115 81 66 65 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -29. -37. -44. -49. -53. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -10. -10. -6. -1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 1. 5. 3. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -19. -25. -24. -29. -24. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 13.2 73.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 85.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.1% 2.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 30( 57) 29( 69) 29( 78) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 33 80( 87) 90( 99) 87(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 117 112 111 111 111 110 106 88 89 84 89 86 18HR AGO 125 124 119 118 118 118 117 113 95 96 91 96 93 12HR AGO 125 122 121 120 120 120 119 115 97 98 93 98 95 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 115 115 114 110 92 93 88 93 90 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 106 105 101 83 84 79 84 81 IN 6HR 125 117 108 102 99 99 98 94 76 77 72 77 74 IN 12HR 125 117 112 103 97 93 92 88 70 71 66 71 68