* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 125 121 119 118 117 117 109 104 98 100 99 97 V (KT) LAND 130 125 121 119 118 117 117 93 97 91 92 91 90 V (KT) LGEM 130 125 119 114 110 107 108 91 100 104 106 104 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 12 8 5 3 3 8 8 10 7 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 2 3 4 2 5 2 5 -2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 266 268 265 266 226 259 145 320 343 310 280 290 267 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 147 149 150 156 161 160 160 165 166 165 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 137 139 141 142 146 151 147 146 149 145 139 136 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -50.4 -50.4 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 74 76 74 72 71 70 68 72 74 76 75 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 25 27 29 31 29 28 29 33 36 38 850 MB ENV VOR 96 90 102 103 103 104 115 105 122 105 124 99 109 200 MB DIV 102 82 112 115 89 94 114 77 86 85 94 54 71 700-850 TADV 9 8 7 8 7 7 6 12 4 16 5 10 15 LAND (KM) 214 273 333 326 269 138 53 -12 147 322 470 430 405 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 17.1 18.7 20.4 22.2 23.9 25.6 26.5 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 73.4 73.7 74.0 74.3 74.6 74.9 74.8 74.8 75.0 75.2 75.5 75.8 76.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 28 34 43 56 66 75 97 82 101 70 66 65 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -8. -13. -21. -32. -41. -48. -54. -58. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -11. -11. -8. -2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 6. 5. 5. 10. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -21. -26. -32. -30. -31. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 13.5 73.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 130.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 146.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 9.9% 5.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 3.4% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 34( 62) 32( 74) 32( 83) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 68 88( 96) 80( 99) 62(100) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 125 121 119 118 117 117 93 97 91 92 91 90 18HR AGO 130 129 125 123 122 121 121 97 101 95 96 95 94 12HR AGO 130 127 126 124 123 122 122 98 102 96 97 96 95 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 119 118 118 94 98 92 93 92 91 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 110 110 86 90 84 85 84 83 IN 6HR 130 125 116 110 107 107 107 83 87 81 82 81 80 IN 12HR 130 125 121 112 106 102 102 78 82 76 77 76 75