* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/02/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 128 126 125 124 125 121 112 109 104 101 101 97 V (KT) LAND 130 128 126 125 124 125 121 106 103 98 95 95 91 V (KT) LGEM 130 126 121 117 114 111 109 101 107 110 108 104 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 6 5 3 1 2 9 5 9 11 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 3 2 4 9 6 6 2 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 244 254 273 204 258 334 343 344 294 312 300 310 278 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.4 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 147 150 152 156 162 158 161 166 166 166 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 139 142 143 147 152 146 146 147 144 144 138 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 -50.3 -50.1 -49.6 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 76 77 76 73 71 70 69 72 75 77 76 76 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 27 27 27 28 32 30 28 30 32 36 40 41 850 MB ENV VOR 92 100 97 103 111 113 124 128 127 121 112 114 99 200 MB DIV 95 120 82 93 93 144 113 89 60 100 43 84 74 700-850 TADV 5 4 8 4 6 4 12 9 11 15 7 10 24 LAND (KM) 271 327 380 321 252 114 80 43 206 358 447 427 409 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.3 15.9 17.3 19.1 21.0 22.8 24.3 25.4 26.7 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 73.9 74.3 74.6 74.8 74.9 74.8 74.8 74.8 75.1 75.3 75.6 75.8 76.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 9 7 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 38 48 59 69 76 95 106 87 68 66 64 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -7. -13. -21. -31. -40. -48. -54. -58. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 6. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -9. -18. -21. -26. -29. -29. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 13.7 73.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.94 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 130.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 114.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 11.8% 6.6% 3.2% 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 2.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 4.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 40( 66) 36( 78) 38( 86) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 87 99(100) 94(100) 97(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 128 126 125 124 125 121 106 103 98 95 95 91 18HR AGO 130 129 127 126 125 126 122 107 104 99 96 96 92 12HR AGO 130 127 126 125 124 125 121 106 103 98 95 95 91 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 119 120 116 101 98 93 90 90 86 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 112 108 93 90 85 82 82 78 IN 6HR 130 128 119 113 110 108 104 89 86 81 78 78 74 IN 12HR 130 128 126 117 111 107 103 88 85 80 77 77 73