* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 122 120 119 119 123 117 107 103 101 98 97 90 V (KT) LAND 125 122 120 119 119 123 117 106 102 100 97 96 90 V (KT) LGEM 125 119 114 110 108 108 108 106 108 107 103 99 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 5 8 7 1 8 9 10 9 13 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 2 1 4 6 4 3 -1 2 3 5 SHEAR DIR 267 264 233 238 275 10 295 336 302 295 305 280 272 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 148 150 152 158 162 158 163 166 166 167 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 139 142 143 149 152 146 148 145 143 145 139 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -50.4 -50.6 -49.9 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 73 72 73 70 74 76 78 78 77 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 25 28 30 32 31 29 31 35 37 40 40 850 MB ENV VOR 95 92 98 99 108 114 109 118 108 114 98 112 105 200 MB DIV 117 105 61 65 106 176 118 84 95 106 60 82 77 700-850 TADV 7 8 6 8 8 4 12 11 11 6 9 20 18 LAND (KM) 311 357 368 300 234 69 57 89 258 395 448 396 384 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.5 16.1 17.7 19.5 21.4 23.3 24.8 25.8 27.0 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.4 74.5 74.7 74.8 74.9 74.7 74.5 74.7 75.2 75.5 75.7 76.1 76.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 7 7 9 9 10 9 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 41 48 56 73 96 90 88 107 17 16 60 57 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -17. -28. -36. -43. -49. -52. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 2. 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -2. -8. -18. -22. -24. -27. -28. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 14.0 74.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 62.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 86.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 10.2% 5.9% 3.2% 0.0% 1.5% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.6% 2.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 33( 58) 33( 72) 35( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 98 99(100) 92(100) 96(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 122 120 119 119 123 117 106 102 100 97 96 90 18HR AGO 125 124 122 121 121 125 119 108 104 102 99 98 92 12HR AGO 125 122 121 120 120 124 118 107 103 101 98 97 91 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 115 119 113 102 98 96 93 92 86 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 110 104 93 89 87 84 83 77 IN 6HR 125 122 113 107 104 106 100 89 85 83 80 79 73 IN 12HR 125 122 120 111 105 101 95 84 80 78 75 74 68