* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 122 121 121 123 124 115 107 102 99 98 94 93 V (KT) LAND 125 122 121 121 123 124 102 103 98 96 94 90 89 V (KT) LGEM 125 119 115 112 110 108 94 101 103 105 103 99 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 7 4 2 8 9 8 12 8 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 3 5 4 8 4 1 -1 -2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 265 237 238 243 211 260 9 336 317 273 265 259 231 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 152 154 160 160 160 165 169 167 161 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 141 144 146 151 149 146 149 150 146 137 131 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.6 -50.7 -50.2 -50.2 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 72 73 71 73 76 78 76 74 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 25 26 28 30 28 27 29 32 34 35 40 850 MB ENV VOR 100 105 99 107 108 111 108 103 103 86 92 82 93 200 MB DIV 113 84 81 101 116 127 121 76 89 59 82 86 98 700-850 TADV 3 5 6 5 6 8 12 8 11 6 8 22 16 LAND (KM) 348 364 307 236 176 23 -10 151 300 422 366 384 404 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.2 16.0 16.7 18.4 20.3 22.2 23.8 25.5 27.1 28.6 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 74.7 75.0 75.2 75.1 75.0 74.7 74.7 74.9 75.5 76.0 76.4 76.6 76.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 8 8 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 55 69 101 97 74 15 98 67 60 57 60 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -27. -35. -42. -48. -52. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -10. -18. -23. -26. -27. -31. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 14.3 74.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 73.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 72.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 8.4% 4.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 2.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 34( 59) 35( 73) 36( 83) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 97 92(100) 96(100) 89(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 122 121 121 123 124 102 103 98 96 94 90 89 18HR AGO 125 124 123 123 125 126 104 105 100 98 96 92 91 12HR AGO 125 122 121 121 123 124 102 103 98 96 94 90 89 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 117 118 96 97 92 90 88 84 83 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 107 85 86 81 79 77 73 72 IN 6HR 125 122 113 107 104 104 82 83 78 76 74 70 69 IN 12HR 125 122 121 112 106 102 80 81 76 74 72 68 67