* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 124 128 129 129 121 113 110 106 105 105 98 V (KT) LAND 125 124 124 128 129 129 116 108 105 101 100 100 93 V (KT) LGEM 125 122 119 116 115 114 107 107 108 107 104 98 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 5 1 3 6 7 10 10 12 14 14 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 6 8 4 10 8 6 -1 1 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 257 246 265 348 46 327 334 326 313 304 260 248 246 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 154 156 162 158 160 167 169 165 161 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 141 145 147 152 146 145 151 149 144 138 129 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -50.4 -50.4 -49.9 -49.9 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 9 9 10 9 8 7 8 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 71 73 72 72 71 75 78 76 74 69 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 29 29 29 28 28 32 35 38 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 104 99 108 113 118 108 111 91 112 92 96 83 76 200 MB DIV 104 93 111 140 147 141 85 63 95 70 68 90 90 700-850 TADV 4 7 8 6 4 17 18 8 9 6 16 17 9 LAND (KM) 376 324 261 197 143 53 15 167 314 410 367 392 398 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.4 17.1 18.8 20.7 22.4 24.0 25.7 27.3 28.9 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.1 75.1 75.1 75.0 74.7 74.7 75.0 75.6 76.1 76.4 76.6 76.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 50 65 91 102 93 100 80 94 65 59 56 60 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -2. -3. -4. -8. -16. -27. -35. -42. -48. -52. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 5. 8. 11. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 3. 4. 4. -4. -12. -15. -19. -20. -20. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 14.5 75.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 80.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 139.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 19.8% 11.3% 7.0% 0.0% 2.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 2.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.9% 3.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 36( 60) 44( 78) 44( 88) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 95 91(100) 97(100) 98(100) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 124 124 128 129 129 116 108 105 101 100 100 93 18HR AGO 125 124 124 128 129 129 116 108 105 101 100 100 93 12HR AGO 125 122 121 125 126 126 113 105 102 98 97 97 90 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 116 116 103 95 92 88 87 87 80 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 106 93 85 82 78 77 77 70 IN 6HR 125 124 115 109 106 104 91 83 80 76 75 75 68 IN 12HR 125 124 124 115 109 105 92 84 81 77 76 76 69