* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 116 120 122 122 116 110 109 110 107 106 100 V (KT) LAND 115 114 116 120 122 122 106 100 99 100 97 96 90 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 110 109 108 106 96 100 104 104 98 91 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 5 3 7 8 14 14 11 16 13 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 6 5 10 12 7 0 1 0 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 278 291 342 355 324 339 325 325 305 298 274 251 259 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 152 156 158 162 158 163 167 169 165 159 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 143 147 148 151 145 147 149 148 143 135 130 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -50.5 -51.0 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -49.7 -49.1 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 8 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 72 72 74 77 78 75 76 71 69 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 31 31 32 32 31 29 31 35 39 41 44 45 850 MB ENV VOR 102 110 113 119 107 118 100 102 97 97 85 96 94 200 MB DIV 106 124 134 74 85 144 68 104 48 70 68 88 77 700-850 TADV 7 11 8 9 11 20 15 18 6 18 27 19 20 LAND (KM) 346 278 212 156 73 39 70 223 361 386 334 377 396 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.0 17.7 19.5 21.3 23.0 24.6 26.1 27.7 29.2 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.1 75.1 75.0 74.8 74.8 75.0 75.3 75.8 76.3 76.8 76.8 76.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 59 84 103 94 91 93 114 51 47 58 56 58 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -20. -26. -33. -38. -42. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 3. 7. 11. 13. 16. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 5. 7. 7. 1. -5. -6. -5. -8. -9. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.9 75.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.91 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 86.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.56 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.84 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.62 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 142.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 17.7% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 11.8% 6.5% 3.5% 0.0% 1.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 3.0% 1.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 10.2% 6.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 34( 69) 34( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 79 94( 99) 87(100) 96(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 114 116 120 122 122 106 100 99 100 97 96 90 18HR AGO 115 114 116 120 122 122 106 100 99 100 97 96 90 12HR AGO 115 112 111 115 117 117 101 95 94 95 92 91 85 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 107 107 91 85 84 85 82 81 75 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 96 80 74 73 74 71 70 64 IN 6HR 115 114 105 99 96 94 78 72 71 72 69 68 62 IN 12HR 115 114 116 107 101 97 81 75 74 75 72 71 65