* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 119 121 123 122 118 111 105 103 101 100 100 95 V (KT) LAND 120 119 121 123 122 115 108 102 101 99 97 97 93 V (KT) LGEM 120 117 115 114 112 94 103 107 106 102 97 93 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 4 8 10 11 14 12 13 16 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 10 11 9 5 -1 3 -3 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 312 342 347 317 328 346 319 312 315 282 278 249 246 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 158 162 165 161 161 165 167 163 159 154 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 147 149 153 156 149 147 149 148 142 138 131 123 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -50.2 -50.2 -50.0 -50.0 -49.4 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 7 5 5 2 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 72 75 75 74 74 72 68 62 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 31 29 28 27 29 33 35 38 42 45 850 MB ENV VOR 113 116 115 111 116 111 91 110 98 107 82 83 102 200 MB DIV 125 132 74 85 111 104 66 98 57 83 83 70 70 700-850 TADV 6 9 10 11 21 19 14 10 6 13 20 15 11 LAND (KM) 300 232 154 59 38 4 142 291 395 338 345 382 299 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.2 16.9 17.8 18.7 20.4 22.1 23.7 25.2 26.7 28.3 29.9 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 74.9 74.8 74.8 74.7 74.6 74.6 74.9 75.5 76.2 76.7 76.9 77.0 76.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 70 90 86 83 84 45 100 66 60 52 51 43 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -11. -21. -29. -36. -42. -47. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -4. 0. 1. 5. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 2. -2. -9. -15. -17. -19. -20. -20. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 15.4 74.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.85 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 82.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.53 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.82 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.53 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 120.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.63 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.01 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 153.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 17.6% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 12.1% 6.4% 3.6% 0.0% 1.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 3.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 10.3% 6.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 34( 56) 34( 71) 31( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 70 87( 96) 74( 99) 98(100) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 119 121 123 122 115 108 102 101 99 97 97 93 18HR AGO 120 119 121 123 122 115 108 102 101 99 97 97 93 12HR AGO 120 117 116 118 117 110 103 97 96 94 92 92 88 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 109 102 95 89 88 86 84 84 80 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 94 87 81 80 78 76 76 72 IN 6HR 120 119 110 104 101 93 86 80 79 77 75 75 71 IN 12HR 120 119 121 112 106 102 95 89 88 86 84 84 80