* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 121 124 126 125 117 111 105 102 94 94 89 79 V (KT) LAND 120 121 124 126 125 114 107 101 99 91 91 85 75 V (KT) LGEM 120 120 120 118 116 107 105 107 106 101 94 85 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 2 4 7 9 14 14 12 18 18 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 7 13 12 7 1 0 -1 1 -1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 308 306 293 329 354 338 347 298 309 276 262 261 257 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 158 162 166 165 160 165 167 167 162 158 149 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 151 154 157 155 147 150 148 146 141 136 127 118 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -50.6 -49.9 -50.1 -49.7 -50.0 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 7 8 6 5 3 4 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 72 72 76 76 78 81 78 77 70 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 31 30 27 29 30 34 34 39 41 38 850 MB ENV VOR 111 112 104 105 102 79 78 71 90 56 51 38 73 200 MB DIV 135 112 126 148 134 52 91 67 64 51 96 80 75 700-850 TADV 5 7 6 15 17 12 14 8 5 28 31 31 22 LAND (KM) 252 165 69 34 47 89 244 354 319 259 302 312 209 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.8 17.7 18.7 19.6 21.4 23.2 24.7 25.8 27.3 29.2 30.9 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 74.9 74.8 74.7 74.6 74.5 74.7 75.3 76.1 77.0 77.5 77.6 77.3 76.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 88 87 81 78 91 110 18 62 59 48 52 37 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -11. -20. -28. -36. -42. -47. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 10. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -4. -2. 1. 1. 7. 8. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 5. -3. -9. -15. -18. -26. -26. -31. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 15.9 74.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.90 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 85.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.55 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.86 4.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 120.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.75 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.04 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 101.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 17.9% 32.5% 23.5% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 17.3% 8.6% 3.7% 0.0% 1.8% 0.9% Bayesian: 8.4% 6.4% 10.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.7% 18.7% 14.3% 5.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/03/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 36( 57) 38( 73) 30( 81) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 83 75( 96) 90(100) 98(100) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 121 124 126 125 114 107 101 99 91 91 85 75 18HR AGO 120 119 122 124 123 112 105 99 97 89 89 83 73 12HR AGO 120 117 116 118 117 106 99 93 91 83 83 77 67 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 109 98 91 85 83 75 75 69 59 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 90 83 77 75 67 67 61 51 IN 6HR 120 121 112 106 103 97 90 84 82 74 74 68 58 IN 12HR 120 121 124 115 109 105 98 92 90 82 82 76 66