* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/04/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 126 128 128 128 121 115 105 105 96 92 88 79 V (KT) LAND 125 126 113 124 110 115 110 100 99 90 86 83 73 V (KT) LGEM 125 124 109 118 115 111 110 109 105 97 87 78 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 9 7 14 13 13 15 22 28 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 8 7 8 7 -3 1 -3 -3 -5 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 312 321 290 3 355 326 311 295 266 258 246 247 251 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.4 28.9 28.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 164 163 164 162 168 168 163 158 150 141 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 152 155 152 152 149 152 150 144 138 128 119 106 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -50.6 -50.5 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -50.3 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 1 3 700-500 MB RH 74 77 75 75 75 77 80 79 80 80 75 70 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 31 30 31 30 33 32 37 37 40 42 39 850 MB ENV VOR 104 95 97 98 97 67 91 81 91 63 63 53 104 200 MB DIV 121 127 162 169 95 77 111 50 71 76 80 92 77 700-850 TADV 8 9 9 12 14 19 9 0 11 27 26 24 20 LAND (KM) 176 76 -15 72 -2 138 270 305 179 176 264 150 61 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.5 18.4 19.3 20.1 22.0 23.7 25.3 26.8 28.6 30.5 32.2 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 74.6 74.4 74.2 74.2 74.3 74.8 75.9 77.2 78.3 78.8 78.6 78.2 77.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 84 76 86 91 38 102 28 65 56 41 55 25 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -5. -13. -23. -32. -41. -48. -53. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. 1. -1. 5. 4. 7. 9. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. -4. -10. -20. -20. -29. -33. -37. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.6 74.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 75.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 76.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 26.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.4% 17.7% 8.9% 4.7% 0.0% 1.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 3.8% 2.6% 4.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.4% 15.5% 4.4% 1.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 0( 38) 0( 38) 31( 57) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 66 0( 66) 0( 66) 95( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 126 113 124 110 115 110 100 99 90 86 83 73 18HR AGO 125 124 111 122 108 113 108 98 97 88 84 81 71 12HR AGO 125 122 121 132 118 123 118 108 107 98 94 91 81 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 101 106 101 91 90 81 77 74 64 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 111 106 96 95 86 82 79 69 IN 6HR 125 126 117 111 108 104 99 89 88 79 75 72 62 IN 12HR 125 126 113 104 98 94 89 79 78 69 65 62 52