* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 126 126 125 122 117 113 112 105 101 92 83 71 V (KT) LAND 125 126 124 123 120 115 111 110 103 99 90 81 69 V (KT) LGEM 125 124 120 115 111 108 112 114 109 99 87 75 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 8 9 13 10 6 12 15 21 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 1 -1 -2 2 -1 2 0 10 SHEAR DIR 325 306 345 5 340 338 297 306 274 241 248 249 265 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 163 164 162 164 167 168 158 153 145 140 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 153 153 153 150 150 151 150 139 131 124 119 106 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -50.8 -50.6 -49.9 -50.2 -49.8 -50.2 -50.1 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 5 4 3 4 0 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 74 74 76 74 79 75 76 68 60 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 30 29 27 28 32 37 36 40 40 37 33 850 MB ENV VOR 93 92 91 89 70 67 57 74 55 60 49 107 120 200 MB DIV 132 150 172 97 56 92 70 68 76 87 92 117 16 700-850 TADV 9 11 15 15 13 8 1 3 22 24 29 11 -8 LAND (KM) 91 1 45 17 24 172 271 230 108 118 211 138 76 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.2 19.0 19.9 20.8 22.6 24.1 25.7 27.4 29.1 30.7 32.4 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 74.5 74.3 74.1 74.4 74.7 75.6 76.6 77.9 79.1 79.6 79.2 78.2 76.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 78 40 90 22 106 82 66 64 49 38 52 18 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -13. -24. -33. -41. -49. -54. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. 1. 6. 5. 9. 8. 4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -12. -13. -20. -24. -33. -42. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 17.4 74.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 67.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.71 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 181.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.7% 16.2% 9.1% 5.3% 0.0% 1.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 3.2% 2.0% 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.9% 12.9% 4.0% 1.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 36( 60) 33( 73) 31( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 68 86( 96) 96(100) 90(100) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 126 124 123 120 115 111 110 103 99 90 81 69 18HR AGO 125 124 122 121 118 113 109 108 101 97 88 79 67 12HR AGO 125 122 121 120 117 112 108 107 100 96 87 78 66 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 112 107 103 102 95 91 82 73 61 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 101 97 96 89 85 76 67 55 IN 6HR 125 126 117 111 108 106 102 101 94 90 81 72 60 IN 12HR 125 126 124 115 109 105 101 100 93 89 80 71 59