* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 125 126 123 120 117 114 111 103 96 89 80 71 V (KT) LAND 125 139 138 135 132 129 126 123 116 108 101 81 79 V (KT) LGEM 125 130 122 115 111 112 117 116 106 92 78 66 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 11 13 7 9 13 16 28 24 25 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 9 6 3 -3 -1 -1 0 1 0 6 8 SHEAR DIR 286 7 331 330 339 297 290 236 237 235 236 245 246 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.2 27.7 26.3 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 162 162 162 168 168 160 153 139 133 118 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 154 150 149 149 154 151 142 132 119 114 103 98 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 -50.7 -50.3 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 3 2 1 2 0 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 72 75 76 74 77 76 72 63 45 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 24 24 26 30 35 36 38 39 36 34 850 MB ENV VOR 88 86 75 58 51 73 64 61 47 51 69 114 115 200 MB DIV 145 145 97 46 55 87 57 90 101 73 113 64 45 700-850 TADV 11 16 12 11 10 1 2 12 28 25 18 -7 -50 LAND (KM) 0 68 22 75 142 288 260 113 100 131 45 -6 190 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.1 24.0 25.7 27.3 29.2 31.0 32.9 34.8 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 74.3 74.3 74.3 74.6 74.9 76.1 77.6 79.0 79.9 80.0 79.0 76.9 73.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 10 11 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 22 86 82 96 91 60 60 53 33 28 4 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -13. -24. -34. -43. -51. -57. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -22. -29. -36. -44. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 18.5 74.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 75.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.49 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 240.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.9% 12.7% 7.6% 5.1% 0.0% 1.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 5.0% 2.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.9% 10.6% 3.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 50( 50) 45( 73) 44( 85) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 95( 95) 94(100) 94(100) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 139 138 135 132 129 126 123 116 108 101 81 79 18HR AGO 125 124 123 120 117 114 111 108 101 93 86 66 64 12HR AGO 125 122 121 118 115 112 109 106 99 91 84 64 62 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 112 109 106 103 96 88 81 61 59 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 103 100 97 90 82 75 55 53 IN 6HR 125 139 130 124 121 118 115 112 105 97 90 70 68 IN 12HR 125 139 138 129 123 119 116 113 106 98 91 71 69