* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/04/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 123 120 120 116 115 109 103 95 86 76 70 V (KT) LAND 125 124 123 120 120 116 115 109 103 95 68 58 52 V (KT) LGEM 125 121 116 112 110 113 114 112 103 88 60 53 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 13 15 11 9 4 14 26 31 26 35 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 9 6 4 1 -1 0 0 -5 0 0 4 6 SHEAR DIR 352 338 326 344 348 293 291 250 224 239 231 222 209 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.4 28.4 27.6 26.3 24.2 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 162 162 164 168 166 159 143 132 119 103 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 148 149 151 152 153 148 142 125 114 104 92 75 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.0 -50.4 -50.7 -50.1 -50.7 -50.8 -50.3 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 5 4 1 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 74 76 73 76 73 73 62 60 47 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 24 23 26 28 32 34 37 39 37 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR 87 73 53 50 57 49 74 31 53 18 95 121 132 200 MB DIV 140 94 53 55 76 67 54 68 104 107 110 65 76 700-850 TADV 15 13 17 10 7 2 2 20 28 28 8 -52 -123 LAND (KM) 73 -3 61 133 214 322 225 138 134 14 -21 105 66 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.9 22.9 24.7 26.2 28.2 30.6 32.9 34.9 37.7 41.0 LONG(DEG W) 74.3 74.3 74.3 74.7 75.2 76.7 77.9 79.1 80.0 79.4 77.2 74.2 70.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 9 11 11 11 10 12 12 12 16 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 86 43 87 94 58 60 58 54 32 3 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -13. -25. -35. -45. -53. -60. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -3. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -2. -1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 7. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -5. -5. -9. -10. -16. -22. -30. -39. -49. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 19.4 74.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 73.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.96 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 175.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 11.0% 7.2% 4.8% 0.0% 1.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 3.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 9.7% 2.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 35( 60) 33( 73) 31( 81) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 88 89( 99) 96(100) 82(100) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 124 123 120 120 116 115 109 103 95 68 58 52 18HR AGO 125 124 123 120 120 116 115 109 103 95 68 58 52 12HR AGO 125 122 121 118 118 114 113 107 101 93 66 56 50 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 115 111 110 104 98 90 63 53 47 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 102 101 95 89 81 54 44 38 IN 6HR 125 124 115 109 106 103 102 96 90 82 55 45 39 IN 12HR 125 124 123 114 108 104 103 97 91 83 56 46 40