* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/05/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 114 114 113 113 113 107 104 96 88 77 70 V (KT) LAND 120 130 128 127 126 127 126 120 117 109 101 90 83 V (KT) LGEM 120 124 116 111 109 110 114 110 99 86 75 62 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 16 12 10 7 7 14 20 23 31 50 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 7 4 0 0 -1 0 1 -1 5 6 3 SHEAR DIR 332 337 351 357 348 302 249 248 243 242 225 230 213 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.1 26.3 24.3 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 161 162 166 170 163 154 146 140 120 104 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 146 147 148 152 157 147 133 125 123 108 93 74 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.4 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 5 4 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 73 73 72 73 73 71 63 55 48 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 25 24 27 30 33 37 36 35 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 70 56 46 53 54 38 65 35 44 60 93 121 98 200 MB DIV 108 65 43 62 76 37 48 67 79 102 83 30 59 700-850 TADV 16 18 13 9 4 6 6 18 18 10 -18 -73 -87 LAND (KM) -2 26 84 134 203 271 120 71 78 119 10 183 121 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.2 23.0 24.5 26.8 28.7 29.8 31.9 34.7 38.0 41.2 LONG(DEG W) 74.3 74.6 74.9 75.4 75.9 77.4 78.9 79.9 80.4 79.2 76.5 73.0 69.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 12 12 8 8 15 20 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 35 86 100 86 68 65 52 34 29 20 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -11. -22. -32. -40. -48. -54. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -8. -9. -8. -4. -1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 3. 6. 11. 9. 6. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -13. -16. -24. -32. -43. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 20.1 74.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.62 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 75.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.86 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 120.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 204.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 14.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 7.1% 4.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.9% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 7.9% 5.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 43( 43) 40( 66) 41( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 96( 96) 91(100) 82(100) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 130 128 127 126 127 126 120 117 109 101 90 83 18HR AGO 120 119 117 116 115 116 115 109 106 98 90 79 72 12HR AGO 120 117 116 115 114 115 114 108 105 97 89 78 71 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 109 110 109 103 100 92 84 73 66 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 102 101 95 92 84 76 65 58 IN 6HR 120 130 121 115 112 111 110 104 101 93 85 74 67 IN 12HR 120 130 128 119 113 109 108 102 99 91 83 72 65