* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/05/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 105 107 109 115 114 108 104 97 91 81 73 V (KT) LAND 110 106 105 107 109 115 114 108 104 97 91 81 73 V (KT) LGEM 110 104 100 99 101 108 111 106 94 81 70 56 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 13 10 5 3 10 16 25 28 42 61 79 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 8 2 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 1 3 4 -1 -10 SHEAR DIR 332 352 1 345 317 301 258 230 239 227 234 232 246 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.4 29.0 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 166 168 168 159 151 139 136 133 127 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 149 154 155 152 141 130 117 117 117 110 103 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.3 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -49.9 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 6 4 3 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 74 75 73 71 73 72 73 64 57 44 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 26 26 31 33 35 37 36 37 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 49 57 43 68 38 44 27 77 71 52 11 200 MB DIV 59 53 60 62 41 49 28 69 84 87 29 3 -1 700-850 TADV 21 14 4 -1 0 2 9 20 26 -7 -30 -71 -65 LAND (KM) 40 86 129 200 246 193 71 64 60 81 133 225 380 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.4 22.1 23.0 23.9 25.5 27.4 29.3 30.7 32.2 33.6 35.6 37.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.4 74.8 75.2 75.9 76.7 78.3 79.5 80.4 80.8 79.4 76.4 73.4 70.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 11 11 11 8 8 12 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 87 100 91 68 61 62 47 28 26 11 29 19 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 3. 0. -6. -16. -25. -33. -39. -44. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -6. -3. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 6. 9. 12. 10. 10. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -3. -1. 5. 4. -2. -6. -13. -19. -29. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 20.7 74.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.67 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 81.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.52 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.74 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.42 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.17 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.11 0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 179.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 12.7% 9.1% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.2% 3.1% 1.7% 0.0% 1.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.3% 4.4% 3.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 28( 63) 31( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 41 76( 86) 48( 93) 50( 96) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 106 105 107 109 115 114 108 104 97 91 81 73 18HR AGO 110 109 108 110 112 118 117 111 107 100 94 84 76 12HR AGO 110 107 106 108 110 116 115 109 105 98 92 82 74 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 102 108 107 101 97 90 84 74 66 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 97 96 90 86 79 73 63 55 IN 6HR 110 106 97 91 88 91 90 84 80 73 67 57 49 IN 12HR 110 106 105 96 90 86 85 79 75 68 62 52 44