* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 95 97 101 106 104 102 97 90 82 73 62 V (KT) LAND 100 95 95 97 101 106 104 102 97 90 82 73 62 V (KT) LGEM 100 94 91 92 94 101 102 96 84 73 62 49 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 11 7 4 7 12 21 28 34 40 51 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 2 0 0 0 -3 0 2 -3 2 3 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 348 353 336 314 274 259 237 225 232 226 236 243 261 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 164 166 168 170 164 156 148 137 139 137 137 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 152 155 155 146 135 126 116 118 115 111 112 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -50.8 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 8 5 4 2 2 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 73 75 73 71 73 73 73 67 63 55 48 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 27 29 32 33 36 36 34 32 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 46 55 57 45 58 74 39 45 53 64 49 44 34 200 MB DIV 43 56 57 25 41 48 56 87 83 68 35 11 -23 700-850 TADV 13 1 -1 0 4 4 18 16 8 -13 -28 -39 -23 LAND (KM) 91 146 218 249 289 124 51 75 135 138 199 255 326 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.3 23.1 23.9 24.7 26.4 28.1 29.7 31.3 32.4 33.1 33.3 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 74.9 75.3 75.8 76.6 77.5 78.9 80.0 80.4 79.8 78.2 75.8 74.4 73.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 8 8 10 8 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 96 80 64 59 62 52 36 27 24 16 44 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. -3. -11. -18. -25. -30. -34. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 5. 9. 8. 5. 1. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -5. -3. 1. 6. 4. 2. -3. -10. -18. -27. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 21.5 74.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.73 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 72.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.53 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.44 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.21 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 191.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 11.5% 11.1% 6.5% 6.1% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 1.4% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.4% 4.3% 2.4% 2.1% 2.8% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 17( 35) 23( 50) 27( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 39 28( 56) 13( 62) 21( 70) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 95 95 97 101 106 104 102 97 90 82 73 62 18HR AGO 100 99 99 101 105 110 108 106 101 94 86 77 66 12HR AGO 100 97 96 98 102 107 105 103 98 91 83 74 63 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 94 99 97 95 90 83 75 66 55 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 86 84 82 77 70 62 53 42 IN 6HR 100 95 86 80 77 77 75 73 68 61 53 44 33 IN 12HR 100 95 95 86 80 76 74 72 67 60 52 43 32