* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/05/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 104 108 110 111 109 103 95 88 77 65 56 V (KT) LAND 105 103 104 108 110 111 109 103 95 88 77 65 56 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 104 106 109 108 104 94 83 72 59 48 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 6 6 10 12 26 28 33 32 43 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -3 1 -2 -1 0 3 -1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 337 323 313 285 273 252 213 233 219 233 247 259 252 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 168 171 168 160 153 140 138 140 144 141 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 150 154 158 151 142 132 119 116 118 120 113 112 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 3 3 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 73 72 73 75 67 57 48 46 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 31 32 33 34 35 34 33 27 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 52 54 43 53 73 46 56 42 62 47 94 66 51 200 MB DIV 60 55 29 43 45 34 66 76 111 45 23 4 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 6 6 5 13 16 21 -9 -5 -16 -6 -11 LAND (KM) 134 195 238 287 191 72 33 86 114 182 338 402 406 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.0 23.7 24.7 25.6 27.2 28.9 30.6 32.0 32.5 32.1 31.9 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.4 76.0 76.5 77.4 78.3 79.4 80.5 80.5 79.1 77.2 74.8 73.9 74.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 13 11 10 9 8 9 9 7 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 81 64 59 61 59 50 22 23 17 29 16 18 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 1. -6. -15. -23. -30. -36. -40. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 3. -5. -13. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 3. 5. 6. 4. -2. -10. -17. -28. -40. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 22.2 75.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.78 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 64.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.42 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.58 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.37 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.17 0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 212.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 13.9% 9.9% 9.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 8.3% 5.0% 2.8% 0.0% 1.2% 2.5% Bayesian: 1.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 7.8% 5.0% 4.1% 2.9% 0.4% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 26( 46) 29( 62) 29( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 64 48( 81) 36( 88) 41( 93) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 103 104 108 110 111 109 103 95 88 77 65 56 18HR AGO 105 104 105 109 111 112 110 104 96 89 78 66 57 12HR AGO 105 102 101 105 107 108 106 100 92 85 74 62 53 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 97 98 96 90 82 75 64 52 43 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 87 85 79 71 64 53 41 32 IN 6HR 105 103 94 88 85 83 81 75 67 60 49 37 28 IN 12HR 105 103 104 95 89 85 83 77 69 62 51 39 30