* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/06/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 106 111 114 114 110 103 93 79 67 58 56 V (KT) LAND 100 102 106 111 114 114 110 103 93 79 67 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 100 102 105 109 110 108 101 90 79 66 54 45 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 4 4 6 7 20 21 31 33 37 30 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 3 3 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 335 292 303 296 254 234 224 239 229 247 250 239 230 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.7 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.8 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 166 169 170 168 164 156 146 136 136 138 144 148 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 156 155 150 146 136 125 115 114 114 120 126 134 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.4 -50.3 -50.6 -50.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 3 2 0 1 2 7 700-500 MB RH 73 70 71 71 72 71 69 62 49 41 36 38 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 29 32 33 33 34 35 33 28 24 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 69 57 56 72 74 49 66 59 61 58 75 84 71 200 MB DIV 52 23 31 39 55 55 83 96 67 37 21 13 2 700-850 TADV 0 9 9 8 6 15 13 10 -9 -11 -21 -1 0 LAND (KM) 198 236 265 177 105 10 29 105 100 171 294 482 676 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.9 24.8 25.6 26.3 28.0 29.7 31.2 32.5 32.7 32.1 30.8 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 76.9 77.8 78.5 79.1 80.4 80.9 80.2 78.6 77.0 75.8 74.5 73.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 63 60 31 58 51 32 16 21 10 29 29 28 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. -5. -14. -21. -28. -33. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 5. -1. -8. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 14. 14. 10. 3. -7. -21. -33. -42. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 23.0 76.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.88 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 52.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.34 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.88 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.46 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.21 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 248.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 18.0% 13.3% 12.3% 11.1% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.1% 17.5% 12.4% 9.6% 0.0% 2.5% 3.7% Bayesian: 5.9% 10.2% 19.2% 1.6% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 15.2% 15.0% 7.8% 4.4% 4.3% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 27( 43) 30( 60) 30( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 33 20( 46) 30( 62) 10( 66) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 102 106 111 114 114 110 103 93 79 67 58 56 18HR AGO 100 99 103 108 111 111 107 100 90 76 64 55 53 12HR AGO 100 97 96 101 104 104 100 93 83 69 57 48 46 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 93 93 89 82 72 58 46 37 35 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 81 77 70 60 46 34 25 23 IN 6HR 100 102 93 87 84 83 79 72 62 48 36 27 25 IN 12HR 100 102 106 97 91 87 83 76 66 52 40 31 29