* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 110 113 112 111 106 96 84 70 58 53 50 V (KT) LAND 105 106 110 113 112 111 106 96 84 70 58 53 50 V (KT) LGEM 105 106 108 109 108 104 97 85 72 61 49 41 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 7 10 14 23 26 36 37 43 43 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 0 -3 0 1 4 -2 2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 315 300 271 257 259 227 228 222 244 244 245 246 262 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.4 28.9 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 168 164 159 150 136 135 137 142 145 146 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 156 153 148 140 129 115 113 114 117 119 122 124 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 6 6 3 4 1 1 0 3 5 700-500 MB RH 71 72 73 72 71 72 64 53 44 40 37 44 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 31 32 30 32 35 33 31 25 20 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 52 48 71 64 53 66 51 61 54 96 68 50 11 200 MB DIV 16 26 39 34 22 62 74 96 59 24 2 9 4 700-850 TADV 13 14 9 5 11 20 17 -3 0 -17 -3 0 5 LAND (KM) 237 281 173 99 43 15 61 76 151 264 373 487 592 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.7 25.5 26.5 27.4 29.2 31.0 32.2 32.7 32.4 31.6 30.9 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 76.7 77.6 78.5 79.1 79.8 80.9 80.8 79.5 77.5 75.9 75.2 74.1 73.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 59 62 58 51 44 18 19 9 19 37 20 29 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. -1. -9. -19. -27. -34. -39. -42. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 4. 1. -7. -15. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 8. 7. 6. 1. -9. -21. -35. -47. -52. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 23.8 76.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.35 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.85 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.51 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.15 0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 264.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 16.7% 12.1% 11.4% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 13.5% 10.1% 6.9% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% Bayesian: 4.1% 6.3% 10.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 12.2% 10.8% 6.3% 3.6% 0.6% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 29( 48) 30( 64) 29( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 48 44( 71) 30( 80) 2( 80) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 106 110 113 112 111 106 96 84 70 58 53 50 18HR AGO 105 104 108 111 110 109 104 94 82 68 56 51 48 12HR AGO 105 102 101 104 103 102 97 87 75 61 49 44 41 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 93 88 78 66 52 40 35 32 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 85 80 70 58 44 32 27 24 IN 6HR 105 106 97 91 88 85 80 70 58 44 32 27 24 IN 12HR 105 106 110 101 95 91 86 76 64 50 38 33 30