* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 122 122 121 116 105 92 77 64 53 49 46 V (KT) LAND 115 119 122 122 121 116 105 92 77 64 53 49 46 V (KT) LGEM 115 119 121 119 116 107 93 81 72 62 53 47 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 8 7 20 22 30 29 32 32 34 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 1 1 -4 -2 2 2 0 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 317 345 268 261 256 229 235 233 252 247 251 250 252 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.3 28.7 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 166 160 157 146 134 139 144 145 148 148 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 152 149 142 137 125 113 117 120 121 122 122 122 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.4 -51.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 6 5 3 3 0 2 2 5 6 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 69 69 66 57 45 38 34 36 44 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 34 33 34 35 34 30 26 21 16 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 49 72 71 56 56 71 62 71 54 85 87 109 95 200 MB DIV 42 56 43 39 35 54 87 81 45 19 -8 -16 4 700-850 TADV 13 12 5 12 15 18 10 -7 -4 -13 -3 0 -5 LAND (KM) 282 200 106 41 19 47 96 122 249 388 504 567 550 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.4 26.2 27.1 28.0 29.7 31.4 32.2 32.2 31.5 30.3 29.6 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 77.4 78.3 79.1 79.7 80.3 80.7 80.2 78.6 76.4 75.1 74.9 74.9 75.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 8 7 6 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 58 54 49 42 30 22 15 15 37 22 30 34 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 22.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 0. -6. -16. -28. -36. -44. -49. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. -2. -9. -16. -23. -26. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 7. 6. 1. -10. -23. -38. -51. -62. -66. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 24.6 77.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 8.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.87 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.81 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.10 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.32 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.03 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 354.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.59 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 20.9% 22.8% 21.3% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.8% 22.8% 17.8% 13.5% 0.0% 2.5% 1.8% Bayesian: 13.5% 28.9% 9.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.4% 24.8% 16.0% 9.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 34( 54) 34( 70) 31( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 65 72( 90) 45( 95) 3( 95) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 119 122 122 121 116 105 92 77 64 53 49 46 18HR AGO 115 114 117 117 116 111 100 87 72 59 48 44 41 12HR AGO 115 112 111 111 110 105 94 81 66 53 42 38 35 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 104 99 88 75 60 47 36 32 29 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 91 80 67 52 39 28 24 21 IN 6HR 115 119 110 104 101 96 85 72 57 44 33 29 26 IN 12HR 115 119 122 113 107 103 92 79 64 51 40 36 33