* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/06/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 121 119 117 114 104 93 78 65 52 47 46 46 V (KT) LAND 120 121 119 117 114 104 93 78 65 52 47 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 120 121 119 115 109 96 84 73 62 54 48 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 11 14 23 25 33 29 33 31 31 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 281 259 262 251 216 230 223 243 247 240 236 240 233 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.3 28.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 164 159 157 148 135 135 136 144 145 148 153 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 147 141 139 129 114 114 113 118 121 125 128 132 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 3 3 1 1 1 4 4 7 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 71 70 62 52 43 37 33 37 46 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 34 34 36 35 33 29 23 18 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 68 72 54 55 70 47 66 68 102 71 101 103 119 200 MB DIV 54 53 34 25 33 79 133 64 24 -4 -21 20 27 700-850 TADV 13 8 14 20 23 22 -4 -2 -16 -7 0 1 -2 LAND (KM) 190 112 56 24 14 52 81 148 271 396 521 490 395 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.6 27.5 28.5 29.5 31.2 32.4 32.8 32.3 31.4 30.0 29.0 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 78.3 79.0 79.7 80.3 81.0 80.8 79.0 77.3 75.9 75.1 75.1 75.6 76.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 10 8 9 6 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 54 48 40 28 11 15 7 16 34 23 32 37 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -3. -12. -23. -35. -44. -52. -57. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -12. -13. -13. -12. -9. -5. -2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -7. -15. -23. -28. -30. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -6. -16. -27. -42. -55. -68. -73. -74. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 25.7 78.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 120.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 329.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 10.7% 8.4% 5.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 3.3% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 4.2% 3.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 18 UTC ## ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 33( 55) 30( 69) 26( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 62 36( 76) 1( 76) 0( 76) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 121 119 117 114 104 93 78 65 52 47 46 46 18HR AGO 120 119 117 115 112 102 91 76 63 50 45 44 44 12HR AGO 120 117 116 114 111 101 90 75 62 49 44 43 43 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 107 97 86 71 58 45 40 39 39 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 91 80 65 52 39 34 33 33 IN 6HR 120 121 112 106 103 97 86 71 58 45 40 39 39 IN 12HR 120 121 119 110 104 100 89 74 61 48 43 42 42