* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/07/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 112 112 108 97 86 72 60 49 46 43 44 V (KT) LAND 115 114 112 112 108 97 86 72 60 49 46 43 44 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 111 107 101 87 78 68 57 48 40 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 14 13 22 25 36 38 32 32 34 33 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 4 2 13 12 11 4 5 SHEAR DIR 241 257 250 217 226 232 231 256 235 228 232 230 224 SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.3 27.6 28.0 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 159 157 148 140 130 136 143 147 152 159 158 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 143 139 128 118 108 113 120 123 129 135 131 130 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.6 -50.7 -50.0 -50.3 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 5 3 3 0 2 2 4 4 7 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 67 63 52 40 34 26 21 22 30 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 35 38 39 37 37 33 28 22 20 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 70 57 54 74 64 80 70 92 102 86 74 88 63 200 MB DIV 57 39 35 41 61 80 63 40 1 -21 -5 -4 6 700-850 TADV 9 16 17 16 17 5 1 -12 -26 -10 -18 -14 0 LAND (KM) 122 60 14 38 37 48 90 234 401 491 330 265 290 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.6 28.6 29.6 30.5 31.7 32.3 32.0 30.9 29.6 28.4 27.6 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 78.9 79.7 80.5 80.8 81.0 80.6 79.0 77.2 75.8 75.7 77.1 77.5 77.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 7 6 7 8 7 7 6 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 49 40 20 22 15 8 9 34 27 36 43 44 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -4. -13. -23. -33. -41. -48. -51. -54. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -18. -17. -14. -9. -6. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -4. -11. -19. -23. -28. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -7. -18. -29. -43. -55. -66. -69. -72. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 26.6 78.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 378.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 5.9% 4.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 28( 65) 20( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 44 4( 46) 0( 46) 0( 46) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 114 112 112 108 97 86 72 60 49 46 43 44 18HR AGO 115 114 112 112 108 97 86 72 60 49 46 43 44 12HR AGO 115 112 111 111 107 96 85 71 59 48 45 42 43 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 101 90 79 65 53 42 39 36 37 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 85 74 60 48 37 34 31 32 IN 6HR 115 114 105 99 96 89 78 64 52 41 38 35 36 IN 12HR 115 114 112 103 97 93 82 68 56 45 42 39 40