* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/07/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 101 98 94 83 71 56 39 34 30 30 32 V (KT) LAND 105 101 101 98 94 83 71 56 39 34 30 30 32 V (KT) LGEM 105 100 96 92 86 77 69 58 47 38 31 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 10 14 23 28 29 39 37 43 38 39 36 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -3 4 3 8 14 10 10 3 5 SHEAR DIR 246 246 226 227 233 222 246 239 233 242 240 237 238 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.6 28.0 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 148 140 133 130 136 144 147 150 157 160 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 136 128 120 112 109 113 120 123 126 134 135 137 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -50.3 -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 -51.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 3 4 1 2 1 3 3 6 8 700-500 MB RH 66 67 66 64 58 45 35 28 19 17 19 22 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 39 40 39 36 35 30 21 20 17 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 68 58 57 76 81 108 74 83 76 88 55 200 MB DIV 57 44 40 49 46 110 87 31 -15 -20 -8 -5 -1 700-850 TADV 16 15 18 20 24 -2 -6 -25 -17 -24 -17 -8 -3 LAND (KM) 63 38 35 55 48 38 128 255 424 536 421 313 278 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.7 29.6 30.5 31.3 32.5 32.8 32.2 31.0 29.8 28.6 27.6 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.7 80.3 80.8 80.8 80.8 79.7 77.9 76.3 75.2 75.2 76.2 77.0 77.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 39 28 22 17 13 2 6 37 25 33 39 42 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -4. -12. -20. -28. -35. -40. -43. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -20. -21. -19. -16. -12. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -11. -23. -25. -31. -35. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -4. -7. -11. -22. -34. -49. -66. -71. -75. -75. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 27.7 79.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 390.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 23( 44) 16( 53) 9( 57) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 21 4( 24) 0( 24) 0( 24) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 101 101 98 94 83 71 56 39 34 30 30 32 18HR AGO 105 104 104 101 97 86 74 59 42 37 33 33 35 12HR AGO 105 102 101 98 94 83 71 56 39 34 30 30 32 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 91 80 68 53 36 31 27 27 29 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 75 63 48 31 26 22 22 24 IN 6HR 105 101 92 86 83 76 64 49 32 27 23 23 25 IN 12HR 105 101 101 92 86 82 70 55 38 33 29 29 31