* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 98 92 87 72 57 40 26 21 20 23 27 V (KT) LAND 105 101 98 92 87 72 57 40 26 21 20 23 27 V (KT) LGEM 105 100 95 88 81 71 60 49 37 30 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 26 32 32 42 45 48 41 36 39 36 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -3 2 2 11 12 10 4 4 1 SHEAR DIR 237 210 217 234 241 233 251 232 236 238 234 231 225 SST (C) 29.1 28.6 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 146 135 131 129 130 130 143 146 150 155 158 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 127 115 110 108 107 108 120 122 127 132 134 138 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.1 -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 -51.4 -51.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 3 2 2 0 1 1 4 3 6 8 700-500 MB RH 67 66 61 56 50 36 32 25 20 22 25 34 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 38 39 38 38 35 32 26 19 15 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 47 69 58 56 76 64 75 103 87 123 93 93 50 200 MB DIV 73 71 72 67 96 78 53 -6 -38 -30 5 1 -2 700-850 TADV 18 15 15 24 11 -13 -19 -35 -19 -11 -7 0 0 LAND (KM) 49 60 39 50 23 46 106 264 453 577 451 349 346 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 30.0 31.1 31.8 32.5 33.3 33.4 32.6 31.2 29.8 29.0 27.9 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 80.3 80.6 81.0 80.5 80.0 78.7 77.1 75.4 74.2 74.4 76.0 76.7 76.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 8 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 21 10 3 31 37 16 25 35 34 40 48 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -24. -32. -37. -42. -45. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -11. -15. -23. -28. -30. -29. -26. -21. -17. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -15. -25. -31. -36. -38. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -13. -18. -33. -48. -65. -79. -84. -85. -82. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 28.9 80.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 454.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 21( 42) 10( 48) 4( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 0( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 101 98 92 87 72 57 40 26 21 20 23 27 18HR AGO 105 104 101 95 90 75 60 43 29 24 23 26 30 12HR AGO 105 102 101 95 90 75 60 43 29 24 23 26 30 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 90 75 60 43 29 24 23 26 30 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 71 56 39 25 20 19 22 26 IN 6HR 105 101 92 86 83 75 60 43 29 24 23 26 30 IN 12HR 105 101 98 89 83 79 64 47 33 28 27 30 34