* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/07/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 92 88 81 67 52 34 26 25 28 31 34 V (KT) LAND 100 96 92 88 81 67 52 34 26 25 28 31 34 V (KT) LGEM 100 96 91 85 79 69 58 47 39 34 31 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 24 29 28 31 44 38 42 39 30 19 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 2 -1 0 9 3 3 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 226 226 239 239 223 247 246 241 240 231 210 222 216 SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 28.2 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.7 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 140 135 133 132 132 138 142 148 155 163 162 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 119 115 114 112 111 114 117 126 136 141 135 134 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.7 -51.2 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -51.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 2 3 0 1 1 2 5 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 64 58 53 46 36 27 23 25 33 40 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 36 36 33 31 27 19 16 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 64 55 56 73 61 77 97 73 123 136 133 104 52 200 MB DIV 58 66 84 114 99 80 57 -30 -34 15 23 13 -13 700-850 TADV 13 13 16 5 -7 -8 -23 -13 -9 -9 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 47 70 65 64 32 113 223 332 483 570 457 413 386 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.5 31.3 32.2 33.0 33.3 33.1 32.5 30.9 28.9 26.7 26.3 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 80.7 80.7 80.6 79.9 79.1 77.1 75.2 74.2 74.2 74.7 75.5 76.0 76.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 11 9 8 6 6 9 11 7 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 18 10 2 52 18 23 15 36 37 63 75 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -20. -27. -33. -36. -38. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -15. -23. -27. -28. -28. -25. -19. -14. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -12. -23. -28. -32. -33. -35. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -19. -33. -48. -66. -74. -75. -72. -69. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 29.7 80.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.11 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 433.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 13( 32) 8( 38) 3( 39) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 96 92 88 81 67 52 34 26 25 28 31 34 18HR AGO 100 99 95 91 84 70 55 37 29 28 31 34 37 12HR AGO 100 97 96 92 85 71 56 38 30 29 32 35 38 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 83 69 54 36 28 27 30 33 36 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 67 52 34 26 25 28 31 34 IN 6HR 100 96 87 81 78 70 55 37 29 28 31 34 37 IN 12HR 100 96 92 83 77 73 58 40 32 31 34 37 40