* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/08/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 79 75 70 59 41 24 16 17 19 22 26 V (KT) LAND 90 84 79 75 70 59 41 24 16 17 19 22 26 V (KT) LGEM 90 83 78 74 70 62 51 40 33 28 25 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 31 28 30 35 42 41 41 33 34 39 34 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 2 3 -3 13 17 11 3 4 2 1 SHEAR DIR 222 242 240 228 234 248 245 243 255 226 233 247 243 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.9 27.7 27.8 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 132 136 133 133 143 148 155 160 162 162 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 115 112 115 112 110 120 127 134 138 138 136 137 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.6 -51.1 -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 -50.1 -51.1 -52.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 4 3 0 2 2 4 5 7 7 9 700-500 MB RH 65 59 54 49 40 31 19 13 10 10 14 17 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 36 35 34 33 26 19 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 74 76 68 87 107 94 73 62 42 19 10 200 MB DIV 73 83 116 111 91 66 -14 -39 -27 -4 -12 -14 -20 700-850 TADV 12 22 7 -7 -15 -24 -32 -34 -19 -6 5 4 9 LAND (KM) 79 96 57 83 90 150 315 496 588 475 409 367 339 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.5 32.3 32.8 33.3 33.8 32.7 30.9 28.9 27.3 26.6 26.0 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 80.6 80.1 79.7 78.6 77.5 75.4 74.2 73.9 74.5 75.3 76.0 76.5 76.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 11 10 7 8 10 9 6 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 18 10 1 3 8 34 13 36 37 55 70 82 82 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -20. -23. -25. -28. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -26. -27. -28. -26. -23. -21. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -15. -25. -32. -33. -33. -34. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -20. -31. -49. -66. -74. -73. -71. -68. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 30.7 80.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 470.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 7( 18) 4( 21) 0( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 84 79 75 70 59 41 24 16 17 19 22 26 18HR AGO 90 89 84 80 75 64 46 29 21 22 24 27 31 12HR AGO 90 87 86 82 77 66 48 31 23 24 26 29 33 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 64 46 29 21 22 24 27 31 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 60 42 25 17 18 20 23 27 IN 6HR 90 84 75 69 66 60 42 25 17 18 20 23 27 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT