* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/08/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 77 71 63 51 32 18 15 17 20 25 28 V (KT) LAND 90 84 77 71 63 51 32 18 15 17 20 25 28 V (KT) LGEM 90 84 79 74 69 58 46 37 31 27 24 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 28 33 36 41 39 38 38 39 34 35 28 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 4 5 3 18 13 10 3 4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 235 239 228 238 246 241 242 240 238 240 243 236 242 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.3 28.1 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 131 132 127 137 144 147 154 159 162 163 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 111 111 112 107 114 121 124 130 136 138 138 137 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 -50.9 -50.4 -50.5 -51.5 -52.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 2 0 2 1 2 4 6 7 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 53 46 39 35 24 16 17 18 20 24 29 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 33 33 31 28 20 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 69 70 70 72 126 100 108 107 98 64 43 14 200 MB DIV 90 105 99 84 87 52 -44 -42 -22 -1 6 -4 -5 700-850 TADV 20 3 -8 -9 -7 -35 -23 -20 -6 -9 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 52 47 24 62 95 206 384 539 645 561 505 465 430 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.3 33.0 33.4 33.8 33.5 32.1 30.6 29.2 27.9 26.9 26.1 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 80.6 79.9 79.2 78.0 76.8 74.9 73.9 73.6 74.0 74.5 75.0 75.5 75.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 9 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 33 52 1 14 22 21 36 34 49 58 68 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -26. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -17. -24. -27. -28. -29. -27. -24. -21. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -20. -29. -32. -33. -33. -34. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -27. -39. -58. -72. -75. -73. -70. -65. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 31.6 80.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 566.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 6( 17) 0( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 84 77 71 63 51 32 18 15 17 20 25 28 18HR AGO 90 89 82 76 68 56 37 23 20 22 25 30 33 12HR AGO 90 87 86 80 72 60 41 27 24 26 29 34 37 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 72 60 41 27 24 26 29 34 37 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 59 40 26 23 25 28 33 36 IN 6HR 90 84 75 69 66 57 38 24 21 23 26 31 34 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT