* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/08/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 53 48 45 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 58 53 48 45 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 56 50 46 43 36 28 22 18 18 18 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 32 39 45 44 44 42 39 32 29 28 30 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 7 4 -1 8 16 13 6 3 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 236 226 231 242 242 240 246 245 242 250 246 225 237 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.5 28.2 28.4 28.9 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 127 126 129 138 142 150 161 162 163 164 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 113 107 106 108 115 119 129 142 140 138 139 141 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.0 -50.8 -51.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 53 47 40 35 31 21 18 17 17 16 17 22 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 36 34 33 33 25 20 16 12 22 22 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR 68 63 67 68 91 118 138 126 105 43 35 19 -19 200 MB DIV 123 118 97 75 60 -7 -34 -25 -16 -9 -17 -15 -21 700-850 TADV 13 -9 -16 -13 -26 -32 -32 -22 -2 2 -4 1 2 LAND (KM) 28 39 24 88 115 283 455 601 644 536 505 460 398 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 33.2 33.8 33.9 34.0 33.4 32.3 30.5 28.2 26.7 26.1 25.6 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 79.9 78.9 77.9 76.8 75.7 73.9 72.6 72.6 73.7 74.7 75.1 75.6 76.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 9 9 8 7 8 10 11 6 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 49 22 11 32 9 11 34 44 59 62 74 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -9. -14. -19. -24. -28. -29. -29. -29. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -6. -2. 1. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -13. -22. -29. -36. -24. -25. -22. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -17. -20. -34. -49. -61. -65. -49. -47. -40. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 32.5 79.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.14 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 32.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 426.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 58 53 48 45 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 59 54 51 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 53 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 38 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT