* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/09/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 55 49 41 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 55 49 41 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 62 58 52 48 40 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 49 47 44 43 40 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -4 -1 1 11 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 242 240 246 252 243 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 27.3 27.6 28.0 27.9 27.7 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 128 132 137 135 131 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 108 111 115 112 108 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -49.7 -50.1 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 33 29 27 27 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 31 28 26 22 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 110 125 142 131 147 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 27 18 0 -24 -36 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -22 -28 -25 -4 -5 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 50 147 262 379 497 640 752 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.8 34.9 35.0 34.8 34.5 33.9 33.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.8 74.5 73.1 71.9 70.6 69.2 68.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 9 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 18 13 9 11 8 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -16. -22. -27. -32. -36. -38. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -16. -24. -38. -47. -55. -60. -64. -67. -67. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 34.8 75.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/09/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.15 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 71.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 485.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/09/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/09/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 61 55 49 41 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 58 52 44 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 55 47 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 47 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT