* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 56 50 44 34 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 56 50 44 34 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 62 58 53 49 43 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 50 46 39 34 33 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 239 245 249 237 243 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.5 28.1 27.9 27.6 26.9 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 131 139 137 133 125 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 111 118 116 114 109 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.9 -49.8 -49.5 -49.5 -49.8 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 31 29 29 34 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 27 23 21 19 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 116 125 148 140 149 110 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 17 2 -5 -12 -7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -16 -33 -32 -23 -21 6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 146 270 399 542 675 787 861 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.1 35.2 35.3 35.5 35.6 36.3 36.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.4 73.0 71.5 69.9 68.3 64.5 60.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 16 19 10 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -21. -25. -28. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -5. -8. -13. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -21. -31. -36. -42. -47. -50. -53. -53. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 35.1 74.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/09/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.18 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 83.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 464.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/09/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 61 56 50 44 34 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 59 53 47 37 32 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 55 49 39 34 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 49 39 34 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT