* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202016 10/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 45 50 64 75 80 85 81 76 69 56 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 45 50 64 75 80 85 81 76 69 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 53 65 76 80 76 66 53 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 6 4 3 9 9 10 12 16 28 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 4 12 11 -8 SHEAR DIR 291 308 308 327 19 134 209 201 233 240 233 227 250 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.5 26.4 25.5 25.0 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 163 162 157 153 149 139 127 117 111 109 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 70 68 66 64 65 65 63 61 54 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 10 11 13 15 16 20 20 20 19 15 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -40 -25 -15 -20 -22 -24 -21 -14 -16 -29 17 11 200 MB DIV 78 81 88 87 81 101 78 62 73 87 84 54 1 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 3 8 3 1 LAND (KM) 546 545 562 594 630 776 814 908 1027 1075 1063 1088 1123 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.3 18.1 19.5 20.3 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.3 105.5 106.6 107.7 108.9 111.3 113.6 115.9 118.1 119.8 120.9 121.9 122.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 53 44 50 44 22 20 17 22 18 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 31.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 24. 26. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 11. 16. 16. 15. 13. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 34. 45. 50. 55. 51. 46. 39. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 104.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 TWENTY 10/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 5.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 7.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.56 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.83 7.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.64 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 51.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.58 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 54% is 9.1 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 16.8% 61.4% 35.9% 22.1% 0.0% 49.4% 53.6% Logistic: 27.5% 74.9% 67.0% 52.4% 41.5% 77.8% 77.5% Bayesian: 10.0% 34.2% 21.1% 6.6% 2.5% 21.9% 11.1% Consensus: 18.1% 56.8% 41.3% 27.0% 14.7% 49.7% 47.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 TWENTY 10/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##