* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202016 10/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 59 68 74 79 74 67 57 45 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 59 68 74 79 74 67 57 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 37 44 52 58 60 56 48 37 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 5 7 3 6 8 10 17 26 37 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 3 10 10 1 -7 SHEAR DIR 329 332 339 22 58 204 247 242 242 231 232 250 262 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.0 26.0 25.3 24.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 162 161 155 152 148 134 123 115 109 104 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 67 65 65 65 66 63 64 60 47 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 11 11 14 17 17 21 20 18 16 11 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -27 -19 -24 -23 -15 -17 -12 -14 -23 -4 24 7 200 MB DIV 91 93 83 78 85 89 58 63 74 116 60 29 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -2 0 -2 -3 -2 3 9 11 12 3 LAND (KM) 547 569 600 633 692 817 871 959 1030 1060 1055 1054 1069 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.7 18.7 19.9 20.7 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.4 107.5 108.7 109.9 112.4 114.5 116.6 118.7 120.2 121.1 121.9 122.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 13 11 10 11 10 8 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 44 47 47 25 17 20 20 21 14 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 9. 11. 16. 14. 11. 7. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 29. 38. 44. 49. 44. 37. 27. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 105.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 TWENTY 10/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.47 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.70 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.66 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 84.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.44 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 40.0% 26.6% 16.8% 0.0% 35.8% 39.1% Logistic: 11.6% 53.8% 43.4% 27.8% 18.3% 53.0% 56.2% Bayesian: 1.8% 11.8% 4.3% 0.9% 0.3% 3.6% 4.3% Consensus: 9.0% 35.2% 24.7% 15.2% 6.2% 30.8% 33.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 TWENTY 10/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##