* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 58 65 71 80 87 91 87 78 67 52 41 V (KT) LAND 45 51 58 65 71 80 87 91 87 78 67 52 41 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 60 68 77 91 100 98 86 69 53 38 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 6 3 6 7 12 17 26 32 38 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 6 10 8 1 0 SHEAR DIR 324 344 23 62 136 248 238 223 224 235 231 254 268 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.4 27.4 26.2 25.2 24.2 23.5 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 162 160 158 153 149 138 125 115 104 95 93 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 64 64 64 64 62 60 58 52 41 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 14 17 20 20 19 16 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -21 -24 -24 -18 -13 -19 -22 -27 -54 -9 -27 -32 200 MB DIV 104 93 91 99 95 53 51 68 103 100 40 -9 -24 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 2 9 10 5 14 5 LAND (KM) 565 601 639 708 789 839 930 1003 1036 1014 914 797 706 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.5 20.0 21.8 23.0 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.7 108.9 110.1 111.3 113.9 116.1 118.0 119.7 120.7 121.2 120.9 120.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 13 12 10 9 9 9 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 48 45 22 17 20 18 22 17 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 47.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -3. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 14. 11. 8. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 26. 35. 42. 46. 42. 33. 22. 8. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.2 106.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 10.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.73 8.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.40 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 10.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 9.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.73 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 160.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.68 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.54 -1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 5.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 6.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 11.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 77% is 10.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 30.5% 75.3% 57.1% 48.5% 46.0% 76.7% 69.1% Logistic: 53.6% 78.6% 81.3% 70.5% 63.1% 83.6% 71.4% Bayesian: 52.4% 59.1% 45.4% 24.3% 13.1% 47.9% 13.0% Consensus: 45.5% 71.0% 61.3% 47.8% 40.7% 69.4% 51.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##