* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 71 78 82 87 92 91 83 72 57 43 31 V (KT) LAND 55 63 71 78 82 87 92 91 83 72 57 43 31 V (KT) LGEM 55 65 75 85 93 103 104 94 78 61 45 32 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 4 5 6 11 16 20 23 37 38 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 -2 0 -1 6 11 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 355 28 97 151 230 250 233 227 224 229 236 263 277 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.6 27.8 26.4 25.5 24.5 23.5 22.9 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 160 157 155 151 142 127 118 107 96 88 84 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -54.5 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 5 5 4 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 64 62 63 63 58 58 55 45 38 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 14 18 20 19 17 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -27 -23 -14 -11 -9 -10 -20 -38 -38 -41 -30 -38 200 MB DIV 94 95 98 105 93 60 75 82 103 73 46 -23 -30 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -1 -5 -2 1 10 12 10 9 10 6 LAND (KM) 596 638 702 802 818 906 992 1022 1039 949 745 646 624 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.3 18.3 19.6 21.3 23.1 24.0 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 109.0 110.2 111.6 113.0 115.5 117.5 119.3 120.7 121.1 120.3 119.9 119.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 13 11 10 10 9 9 8 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 43 21 17 21 18 22 18 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 50.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -5. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 8. 10. 10. 6. 1. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 23. 27. 32. 37. 36. 28. 17. 2. -12. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.7 107.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.69 15.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.62 9.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.32 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.80 14.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 13.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 12.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.74 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 239.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.56 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 -1.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 91% is 7.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 78% is 9.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 12.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 16.7 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 92% is 12.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 60% is 10.2 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 46.6% 91.3% 77.5% 70.1% 68.5% 91.8% 60.3% Logistic: 50.0% 82.0% 74.9% 74.7% 68.9% 70.6% 52.0% Bayesian: 43.7% 54.9% 44.8% 28.8% 18.9% 41.1% 4.3% Consensus: 46.8% 76.1% 65.7% 57.9% 52.1% 67.8% 38.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##