* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/24/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 74 78 81 89 89 85 75 62 46 32 19 V (KT) LAND 60 67 74 78 81 89 89 85 75 62 46 32 19 V (KT) LGEM 60 68 75 81 86 92 90 78 63 47 34 24 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 3 4 8 12 16 25 32 42 39 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 4 3 1 0 5 7 11 3 4 0 SHEAR DIR 29 85 169 214 248 243 242 221 237 231 252 270 285 SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.4 27.3 25.9 24.7 23.6 22.7 22.3 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 157 154 150 149 137 122 110 98 87 82 81 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -53.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.3 -54.7 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 59 62 65 63 60 55 52 45 35 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 13 13 18 19 19 17 15 10 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -22 -15 -13 -12 -3 -11 -27 -65 -26 -43 -32 -48 200 MB DIV 83 89 103 70 36 36 64 83 66 42 -4 -36 -28 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -6 -5 -2 1 6 9 6 3 6 4 LAND (KM) 653 738 824 839 875 990 1076 1092 1036 903 753 649 595 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.4 18.7 20.5 22.2 23.7 24.4 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.5 111.9 113.2 114.4 116.7 119.0 120.6 121.4 121.5 121.0 120.3 119.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 11 11 9 9 8 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 18 19 19 20 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 28.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -8. -13. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 7. 9. 10. 7. 4. -3. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 18. 21. 29. 29. 25. 15. 2. -14. -28. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.0 109.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 10.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.55 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.24 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.80 11.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 11.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 11.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.60 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 294.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.49 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.33 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 72% is 5.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 14.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 68% is 9.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 33.7% 71.8% 61.0% 59.1% 58.8% 67.8% 31.1% Logistic: 38.0% 68.6% 53.7% 43.1% 32.0% 36.5% 15.4% Bayesian: 41.5% 31.0% 19.7% 9.3% 5.7% 10.9% 0.8% Consensus: 37.8% 57.1% 44.8% 37.2% 32.2% 38.4% 15.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##