* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 89 94 98 99 97 95 86 70 53 37 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 80 89 94 98 99 97 95 86 70 53 37 21 DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 91 99 103 104 101 91 75 57 41 28 20 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 2 5 6 12 16 21 29 43 42 49 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 5 3 0 0 0 6 11 3 0 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 63 115 219 230 247 240 233 228 231 239 262 272 272 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.0 26.7 25.4 24.3 23.2 22.3 21.6 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 153 150 150 145 131 117 105 93 84 76 71 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 -55.4 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 62 64 66 63 58 57 49 39 29 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 15 15 15 18 18 15 12 7 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -20 -13 -13 -13 -7 -16 -47 -44 -26 -28 -24 -54 200 MB DIV 78 85 68 52 52 84 83 85 54 10 -13 -13 11 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -6 -4 -1 0 5 10 8 12 16 12 19 LAND (KM) 757 847 861 907 969 1077 1121 1118 1026 889 722 594 527 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.7 17.7 19.3 21.2 22.9 24.3 25.5 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 112.0 113.3 114.6 115.8 118.0 120.0 121.4 122.1 122.0 121.1 120.4 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 20 21 23 22 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 29.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. -3. -8. -13. -18. -22. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -4. -10. -17. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 6. 2. -3. -9. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 14. 18. 19. 17. 15. 6. -10. -27. -43. -59. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.2 110.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.78 9.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.33 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.26 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.75 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.71 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.53 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 393.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.35 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.26 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 11.5 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 5.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 48.4% 47.2% 40.9% 39.4% 38.4% 41.1% 14.8% Logistic: 35.8% 37.1% 32.7% 20.5% 12.2% 13.5% 5.7% Bayesian: 55.8% 36.9% 21.9% 10.3% 6.0% 3.9% 0.1% Consensus: 46.7% 40.4% 31.8% 23.4% 18.9% 19.5% 6.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##