* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 93 99 104 107 107 97 83 67 47 33 29 25 V (KT) LAND 85 93 99 104 107 107 97 83 67 47 33 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 85 95 102 106 108 104 90 72 54 38 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 7 5 8 16 23 33 40 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 3 -1 1 0 6 12 14 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 96 175 191 185 181 214 221 225 227 250 254 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.3 26.1 25.2 24.0 23.5 23.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 152 150 149 137 124 115 101 93 94 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.7 -53.5 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 61 61 65 64 60 58 48 40 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 18 19 20 19 16 14 10 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -11 -10 -9 -3 -10 -20 -50 -17 -21 -16 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 76 61 70 51 64 94 70 17 -26 -28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -1 -2 2 3 2 8 13 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 859 889 939 988 1051 1129 1191 1166 1031 971 970 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.3 17.1 18.1 19.7 21.5 22.3 22.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.4 114.7 116.0 117.2 119.4 121.3 122.3 122.5 122.5 122.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 11 9 9 7 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 23 24 23 18 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 45.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -13. -19. -24. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 5. 2. 0. -7. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 19. 22. 22. 12. -2. -18. -38. -52. -56. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.4 112.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.69 7.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.26 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.29 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.90 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.52 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 447.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.27 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.31 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 11.5 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 45.5% 46.7% 33.8% 31.9% 30.9% 34.8% 0.0% Logistic: 43.3% 60.6% 39.6% 32.1% 23.6% 16.7% 2.6% Bayesian: 65.5% 41.2% 33.9% 19.1% 9.0% 9.6% 0.0% Consensus: 51.4% 49.5% 35.7% 27.7% 21.1% 20.4% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##